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Edge Significance Tool
A good month can be pure luck. This tells you whether your results are statistically real, or how many trades you'd need before your win rate means anything at all.
A lucky streak and a real edge look identical over a handful of trades. This tool tells you whether you have enough trades to tell them apart — or how many more you need before your win rate actually means something.
How it works
Enter your win rate, your reward-to-risk, and the highest chance of luck you're willing to accept. Under 'Test my record' you also enter how many trades you've taken and get a verdict; under 'Plan sample size' you get the number of trades needed to hit that luck tolerance. Demand a lower chance of luck and it takes more trades.
Your track record
How likely you're willing to let your edge turn out to be just luck. Lower means you demand more proof — so it takes more trades. 5% is a common bar.
60 trades isn't enough yet — you'd need about 127. Keep trading, or open 'Plan sample size' for the exact target.
This is the minimum to be confident the edge is real — not a promise it keeps working. Markets change, so a strategy that was genuinely good can still stop paying. It also trusts the win rate and reward:risk you entered; if those were lucky too — or you picked this after testing many strategies — the real number is higher.
Why three months proves nothing
A handful of trades has huge natural swings, so a great week — or even a great month — can be pure luck. Two things decide how many trades you really need: how big your edge is (a thin edge needs far more), and how many strategies you tried to find this one (the more you tested, the more luck is baked into the winner). 'Test my record' tells you if you're already there; 'Plan sample size' gives you the target. Either way the lesson is the same: judge a strategy by how many trades back it up, not by a good-looking week.
Frequently asked
How many trades until my edge is real?
It depends on how big the edge is. A strong edge can show in around a hundred trades, a thin one may need many hundreds. Use Plan mode to get your number.
Does trying lots of strategies change the number?
Yes — in reality it makes it bigger. If you test many ideas and keep the best-looking one, that winner is partly luck, so you'd need even more trades than shown to be sure. Treat this number as a floor and add a margin if you picked it from many attempts.
Is a 60% win rate significant?
On its own, no. What matters is the number of trades and your reward-to-risk, not the win rate alone.
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