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Expectancy Calculator
Win rate alone lies. Expectancy combines your win rate with the size of your wins and losses into the one number that says whether a strategy actually makes money. See yours, and where a run of trades is likely to take you.
Expectancy is what you can expect to make, on average, per trade. It combines your win rate with the size of your wins and losses into a single number, the honest measure of whether a strategy actually makes money.
How it works
Enter your win rate and the average size of your winners and losers, then Calculate. The tool shows your expectancy per trade and projects where a run of trades is likely to take your account, with a realistic range around it.
Your trades
The projection is a range, not a promise
The blue line is the expected path, but the shaded band is where you will realistically land most of the time. Over a small number of trades that band is wide, which is exactly why a few good or bad trades tell you almost nothing. Expectancy only shows through over a large sample.
Frequently asked
What is a good expectancy?
Any positive expectancy means the strategy makes money on average. What matters more is your expectancy after costs, and how many trades you can actually take to let it compound.
Can a low win rate strategy be profitable?
Yes. If your winners are much larger than your losers, you can win far less than half the time and still have strong positive expectancy.
Measure real expectancy from a real backtest, not an estimate. Build and test your strategy, no code.
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