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Breakeven Win Rate Calculator
Win rate on its own means nothing. With a big enough reward:risk you can be profitable winning a third of the time. Find the exact win rate you need to break even.
Your breakeven win rate is the win rate at which your wins and losses exactly cancel out for a given reward to risk. Win more often than that and you profit, less and you lose, which is why win rate alone tells you nothing.
How it works
Set your reward to risk ratio and Calculate. The tool shows the exact win rate you need just to break even. Everything above that line is profit, everything below is a loss.
Your reward : risk
| Reward : risk | Breakeven win rate | You keep everything above |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 : 1 | 66.7% | profit |
| 1.0 : 1 | 50.0% | profit |
| 1.5 : 1 | 40.0% | profit |
| 2.0 : 1 | 33.3% | profit |
| 2.5 : 1 | 28.6% | profit |
| 3.0 : 1 | 25.0% | profit |
| 4.0 : 1 | 20.0% | profit |
| 5.0 : 1 | 16.7% | profit |
Why chasing win rate is a trap
Everyone wants to be right often. But being right and making money are different things. At a 3:1 reward:risk you only need to win 25% of the time to break even, everything above that is profit. A 90% win rate strategy that risks 10 to make 1 is a disaster waiting to happen. What matters is win rate AND reward:risk together, which is exactly what expectancy measures.
Frequently asked
Is a high win rate always better?
No. A high win rate with tiny wins and large losses still loses money. Win rate only matters together with your reward to risk.
What is the breakeven win rate at 2 to 1?
About 33 percent. Above that you profit, below it you lose, before costs.
Stop optimizing for win rate. Build a strategy and measure the number that actually matters, your edge. No code.
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