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Losing Streak Calculator
A positive edge does not protect you from painful losing streaks, it guarantees them. See how many losses in a row you should expect, so the next one doesn't make you quit a working strategy.
Even a profitable strategy produces runs of losses in a row. That is normal variance, not a broken system. Knowing your expected streak length in advance keeps you from abandoning a working strategy at the worst moment.
How it works
Enter your win rate and how many trades you will take, then Calculate. The tool works out how long a losing streak you should realistically expect over that many trades, plus the odds of even longer ones.
Your strategy
| Losses in a row | Probability it happens |
|---|---|
| 4 | 99.3% |
| 5 | 88.0% |
| 6 | 60.2% |
| 7 | 33.4% |
| 8 | 16.5% |
| 9 | 7.7% |
| 10 | 3.5% |
| 11 | 1.6% |
| 12 | 0.7% |
| 13 | 0.3% |
| 14 | 0.1% |
| 15 | 0.06% |
| 16 | 0.03% |
| 17 | 0.01% |
| 18 | 0.01% |
| 19 | 0.00% |
| 20 | 0.00% |
| 21 | 0.00% |
| 22 | 0.00% |
| 23 | 0.00% |
| 24 | 0.00% |
| 25 | 0.00% |
| 26 | 0.00% |
| 27 | 0.00% |
| 28 | 0.00% |
| 29 | 0.00% |
| 30 | 0.00% |
The streak that makes people quit
Most traders abandon a perfectly good strategy during a losing streak that was completely normal. At a 55% win rate over 200 trades, a run of 7 or 8 losses in a row is not bad luck, it is expected. If you don't know your normal streak length in advance, you will confuse variance with failure and switch strategies at the worst possible moment.
Frequently asked
Is a long losing streak a sign to stop?
Usually not. Streaks are normal variance. Only worry if the losses go well beyond what is statistically expected for your win rate.
Does a higher win rate remove streaks?
It shortens them but never removes them. Even a 70% strategy hits runs of losses over enough trades.
Know your strategy's normal streaks before you trade it live. Backtest across years of data, no code.
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